Outlook on EU and Croatian poultry meat market - Partial equilibrium model approach

Abstract

The European Union poultry meat market is the subject of numerous research studies due to its importance in the EU's total agricultural production, exports and food security. With 14.5 million tons of poultry meat production in 2016, the EU-28 is one of the world's leading producers of this kind of meat (approximately 12%). The Old Member States (EU-15) and the New Member States (EU-13) generate 73.8% and 26.2% of the total EU poultry meat production, respectively. The average poultry meat consumption in the EU-28 is currently approximately 24 kg per capita. In the last decade, the EU's poultry meat market has seen structural changes in production, consumption and trade that are the subject of the partial equilibrium model analysis. Results of mid-term projections for the poultry meat market through to the year 2030 showed a decrease in production volume in the EU-15, along with a slowdown of domestic and per capita consumption and a change of status from net exporters to net importers of poultry meat. Meanwhile, in the EU-13 there has been a steady growth in the volume of production and domestic and per capita consumption of poultry meat. The EU-13 Member States will remain net exporters through 2030, with a strong trend in export growth. Croatia, the youngest member state, follows trends in the domestic poultry meat market that are similar to the rest of the EU-13. Until 2030, Croatian poultry meat production is expected to increase by 43.02%, the domestic consumption by 29.37% and per capita consumption for 39.89%. Although Croatia will remain a net importer by the end of the 2030, the gap in net trade deficit is expected to decrease by 31.31%.