Abstract
To realize the safety control of electric power systems under high penetration of photovoltaic power systems, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts using numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to understand meteorological characteristics pertaining to large errors (i.e., outlier events) of GHI day-ahead forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, for nine electric power areas during four years from 2014 to 2017. Under outlier events in GHI day-ahead forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean (frequency per 80 outlier events; 48.8%), (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (18.8%), and (d) typhoons (tropical cyclones) (8.8%) around the Japanese islands. In this study, the four case studies of the worst outlier events were performed. A remarkable SLP pattern was the case of the western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean around Japan. The comparison between regionally integrated GHI day-ahead forecast errors and cloudiness forecasts suggests that the issue of accuracy of cloud forecasts in high- and mid-levels troposphere in NWPs will remain in the future.
Highlights
Installation of photovoltaic (PV) power systems has accelerated in Japan after the introduction of a feed-in tariff in 2012 (Ogimoto et al [1])
Under outlier events in global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean, (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (13.8%), and (d) typhoons (8.8%) around the Japan islands
GHI forecasts obtained using meso-scale model (MSM) of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) were investigated for nine electric power service areas in
Summary
Installation of photovoltaic (PV) power systems has accelerated in Japan after the introduction of a feed-in tariff in 2012 (Ogimoto et al [1]). The capacity of installed PV systems connected to the Japanese power grid stands at approximately 40 GW at present. Liberalization of retail electricity sales (full retail competition) started in the Japanese electric power market after April 2016. (Ogimoto et al [2]). In the 2016 fiscal year, renewable energy and hydro power generation account for. 6.9% and 7.6% for electric power generation in Japan, respectively (Table 1). Thermal power plants (including coal, oil and natural gas) control mainly electric power generation in Japan. Under the high penetration of variable renewable energy, an optimal control of other power resources requires regional PV forecasts
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