Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is directly effected by global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and has also large variations in spatial and/or temporal scales. For a safety control of an energy management system (EMS), a day-ahead forecast or several hour forecast of solar irradiance by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) becomes important for a control of reserve capacity (thermal power generation, etc.). In particular, a large forecast error of PV power and/or GHI forecasts has to be prevented in the EMS. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions. First one is a mesoscale model with horizontal grid spacing of 5 km and second one is a local forecast model with that of 2 km. The two NWPs have been used as an operational model in JMA. In this study, GHI forecasts obtained from the two models are validated and conducted a case study for large forecast error (outlier events) case of GHI.
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