Organized crime after earthquakes

Abstract

Natural disasters can affect the behavior of criminal organizations. This article analyses the effect of the 2017 earthquakes that hit Mexico on the incidence of crimes related to organized crime. In particular, the outcomes of interest are rates for homicides, extortion, drug crime, and kidnapping. Using a difference-in-differences and an event-study methodologies, the findings indicate an increase in kidnapping rates of 4.0% after the earthquakes in affected areas. Then, we explore what type of criminal organizations modifies its behavior after earthquakes. We find a shift in organizational behavior (e.g. violence and altruism) of local criminal organizations, but no effect on large criminal organizations. In all, earthquake events in Mexico increase kidnapping rates through the organizational behavior of local criminal organizations. The significance of this research stems from its methodological approach, which enables the inference of causality by leveraging geographical variation in earthquake strikes.