Orbit Bound. Predictors of ‘readiness to space’ and government support

Abstract

The number of countries investing in the space sector grows by the day but the enabling factors are still either underestimated or misunderstood, due to the lack of comparative research, statistical analysis, and a few, dangerous misconceptions. Working with a panel dataset of forty years and employing methods such as survival analysis and predictive data mining (machine learning), the article shows that government support of civilian and commercial activities, more than military and defence, play a determinant role in the development of a national space sector and they are, eventually, the key factors for venturing to lower orbit and beyond.