Optimum sizing of economic and grid-outage resilient solar array considering the forecasting of solar project cost and customer load demand

Abstract

Solar array, as a kind of renewable energy, is becoming popular because it helps reduce carbon emission, and its capability of providing power resilience during grid outages. In this work, long short term memory networks are utilized to forecast solar array installation cost and customer load demand. Then, a simulation-based approach is developed to optimize solar array investment from both power resilience and economic perspectives. Net present value of total system cost, achieved power resilience and the levelized cost of electricity are jointly considered for evaluating solar array investment options. Case studies are conducted for the households in Texas based on the real data of solar irradiation and grid outages. The results illustrate that both solar array size and its installation time influence the optimization of solar array investment. Customers can gain economic benefits and grid-outage power resilience by investing optimal sized solar arrays after a specific time. The proposed method is able to provide insights about decision making of future investment of solar array.