Optimizing Wildfire Prevention through the Integration of Prescribed Burning into ‘Fire-Smart’ Land-Use Policies

Abstract

Integrating fire into land management is crucial in fire-prone regions. To evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of prescribed fire (PF), we employed the REMAINS model in NW Iberia’s Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés. We tested three levels of prescribed fire treatment effort for shrubland and grassland, employing three spatial allocation strategies: random distribution, prioritization in high-wildfire-risk zones, and creating fuel breaks by utilizing the existing road network. These approaches were assessed in isolation and in combination with three land-use scenarios: Business-as-usual (representing rural abandonment trends), High Nature Value farmland (reversing farmland abandonment), and Fire-Smart forest management (promoting fire-resistant landscapes). Our results confirm that PF is effective in reducing future wildfires (reductions up to 36%), with leverage values ranging from 0.07 to 0.45. Strategic spatial allocation, targeting wildfire-risk areas and existing road networks, is essential for maximizing prescribed fire’s efficiency (leverage effort of 0.32 and 0.45; i.e., approximately 3 ha of PF decrease subsequent wildfire by 1 ha). However, the PF treatments yield the best efficiency when integrated into land-use policies promoting ‘fire-smart’ landscapes (reaching leverage values of up to 1.78 under policies promoting ‘HNVf and ‘fire-smart’ forest conversion). These recommendations strengthen wildfire prevention and enhance landscape resilience in fire-prone regions.