Optimizing the real‐time ground level enhancement alert system based on neutron monitor measurements: Introducing GLE Alert Plus

Abstract

AbstractWhenever a significant intensity increase is being recorded by at least three neutron monitor stations in real‐time mode, a ground level enhancement (GLE) event is marked and an automated alert is issued. Although, the physical concept of the algorithm is solid and has efficiently worked in a number of cases, the availability of real‐time data is still an open issue and makes timely GLE alerts quite challenging. In this work we present the optimization of the GLE alert that has been set into operation since 2006 at the Athens Neutron Monitor Station. This upgrade has led to GLE Alert Plus, which is currently based upon the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB). We have determined the critical values per station allowing us to issue reliable GLE alerts close to the initiation of the event while at the same time we keep the false alert rate at low levels. Furthermore, we have managed to treat the problem of data availability, introducing the Go‐Back‐N algorithm. A total of 13 GLE events have been marked from January 2000 to December 2012. GLE Alert Plus issued an alert for 12 events. These alert times are compared to the alert times of GOES Space Weather Prediction Center and Solar Energetic Particle forecaster of the University of Málaga (UMASEP). In all cases GLE Alert Plus precedes the GOES alert by ≈8–52 min. The comparison with UMASEP demonstrated a remarkably good agreement. Real‐time GLE alerts by GLE Alert Plus may be retrieved by http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/gle_alert_plus.html, http://www.nmdb.eu, and http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/space‐radiation. An automated GLE alert email notification system is also available to interested users.