Optimizing sustainable and renewable energy portfolios using a fuzzy interval goal programming approach

Abstract

Determining the most sustainable renewable energy (RE) source portfolio that meets decision-maker preferences is a complicated and uncertain multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. The RE selection process involves meeting decision-makers’ (DMs) preferences wherein several conflicting criteria are present, such as environmental, societal, and economic. Fuzzy goal programming (FGP) is one of the most well-known techniques for dealing with uncertainty existing in MCDM problems. However, conventional FGP techniques suppose only one single coefficient (or parameter) for each decision variable. This paper proposes a novel multi-objective decision-making model called fuzzy interval goal programming (FIGP) to release the restrictions of FGP with single-coefficient modeling. The proposed model can formulate an interval coefficient for each decision variable. To formulate such a model, this study adopts the concept of multi-choice aspiration levels (MCALs) from the revised multi-choice goal programming (RMCGP) technique. Specifically, the integrated model considers various types of fuzzy goals in real-world problems and offers DMs more flexibility to express and formulate their preferences in terms of fuzzy interval goals. The proposed method is illustrated by selecting the optimal RE portfolio for electricity generation in Italy. The relevant renewables are biomass, solar photovoltaic (PV), tidal currents, and wind energy. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed methodology is capable of assisting the DMs in ascertaining the optimal portfolio of RE under a high level of uncertainty and in imprecise environments.