A sequential three-way risk sorting model with the cautionary principle under probabilistic linguistic environment

Abstract

Risk assessment plays a crucial role in managing risks associated with systems, products and services. In practical risk assessment, the cautionary principle is widely adopted by individuals to prevent accidents, and the degree of caution varies with the risk level of potential hazardous activities (PHAs). Therefore, it is necessary to explore a sequential risk assessment model integrating the cautionary principle. To this end, we design an improved risk assessment model based on sequential three-way decision (STWD) model and cautionary principle. Firstly, a risk distance measure under probabilistic linguistic environment is proposed to effectively reflect varying degrees of caution when individuals analyzed PHAs of different risk levels. Then, a comprehensive risk weight optimization model is constructed on the consideration of the importance ranking and correlations of risk attributes. Subsequently, STWD and the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle are integrated to build the risk sorting model, and both the risk prioritization and classification of PHAs are obtained from the sequential risk sorting process. Finally, we verify the reliability of our proposed model through an example of a floating offshore wind turbine system. The findings validate the crucial role of cautionary principle in risk assessment.