Abstract
Every day, the Los Angeles County Fire Department uses weather forecasts and automated real-time weather observations, together with field-tested moisture content of soil and vegetation, to decide whether and where to position firefighting equipment and personnel, as well as what equipment to use, for the following day. Anticipating a particularly hazardous “red flag” day, they activate off-duty personnel and reserve equipment and add these to the total augmented, prepositioned force. Analysis of years of detailed daily data can advise these costly decisions. Three models, respectively, predict for each region of the county the probability of a fire start, the area burned by a fire given any particular package of equipment and personnel preassigned to fight it, and which packages to form and send to each position. The conflicting objectives are to minimize the expected number of citizens evacuated and the constrained augmentation cost for personnel and equipment.
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