Optimization of spatial layout based on ESV-FLUS model from the perspective of “Production-Living-Ecological”: A case study of Wuhan City

Abstract

As the ecological problems deteriorated through the progress of modernization, exploring the optimization strategy from the ecological perspective is of great significance. Ecosystem Services (ESs) bridge the ecological and social systems, and planning geographical spatial patterns with consideration of reliable Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) assessment can improve land use efficiency and harmonize the human-environment relationship. This study aims to explore the spatial layout optimization strategy under the "Production-Living-Ecological" (PLE) space perspective. Taking Wuhan as the study area, we constructed ecological scenarios according to the synergies and trade-offs mechanism among different ecosystem services, and further combined the scenario restraints with economy, population, traffic, and environment factors to simulate the future geographical spatial layout of Wuhan. The methods of Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) assessment, Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model, GIS technologies and scenario analysis were applied in this study. In this study, we evaluated the ESV of Wuhan and then established a natural growth scenario and two ecological scenarios to simulate the spatial layout of Wuhan in 2035. Meanwhile, we evaluated the carbon emissions to further examine the contributions of our ecological scenarios. The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2018, the spatial layout transformation of Wuhan was primarily from ecological to production space, and the high ESV area was mainly in the East Lake District. (2) Without effective consideration for ecological constraints, the living and production space in Wuhan will expand excessively in 2035. (3) The regulation-provision scenario had the highest ecosystem service value and the smallest carbon emissions. In conclusion, introducing ecosystem services into the FLUS model impact factor system is conducive to improving the ecological benefits of China's spatial pattern under scenario simulations.