Landscape pattern simulation for ecosystem service value regulation of Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Abstract

Landscape pattern regulation would alter regional ecosystem structure, thus affecting ecosystem function and service provision. We analyzed the impact of landscape pattern change on ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). The CA-Markov model was used to map three future (ecological, economic, and eco-economic) scenarios of the TGRA in 2030, then we predicted and compared ESV changes among three scenarios. Our results documented that the total forestland area increased significantly in the ecological scenario, but decreased in the economic scenario. Meanwhile, the construction land area increased in the economic scenario. For the eco-economic scenario, the forestland area change was consistent with the ecological scenario, while the construction land area change was similar to the economic scenario. The ESV of TGRA in 2030 is the highest in the ecological scenario, followed by the eco-economic scenario. Compared to 2015, the total ESV increased in 2030 for both the ecological and eco-economic scenarios, while decreased in the economic scenario. Eco-economic scenario focuses on the coordinated development of ecological protection and economic construction, meeting the needs of economic construction in ecologically fragile areas. This development model will be greatly welcomed by policy makers and effectively promotes sustainable land use in the region. So, we proposed a landscape planning scheme for ecological restoration and economic construction of the TGRA, providing valuable information for decision and policy making and minimizing negative impacts through targeted management measures. Our findings can provide a scientific basis and theoretical practice for environmentally friendly land management.