Optimization of maintenance for complex manufacturing systems using stochastic Remaining Useful Life prognostics

Abstract

This paper leverages Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prognostic information for preventive maintenance planning in complex manufacturing factories. Such a factory consists of multiple complex systems that use redundant components as backups to ensure system availability. The purpose is to minimize production fluctuations in the factory due to maintenance or system breakdown. To achieve this, we propose a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model that minimizes the overall production loss. Furthermore, we incorporate random RUL decrease rates according to reliability theory and extend the MILP model using chance-constrained programming. A novel approximation method for dealing with chance constraints is proposed to solve the stochastic model and approximation properties are analyzed. Computational results show that (i) our MILP model can provide more reasonable maintenance decisions compared to the literature. (ii) Sensitivity analysis reports that RUL prognostics and thresholds significantly impact maintenance decisions. (iii) The analysis of the impacts of confidence levels in chance constraints provides decision-makers with the flexibility to adjust maintenance planning under different levels of uncertainty.