Optimization of Ecological Water Supplement Scheme for Improved Suitable Habitat Area for Rare Migratory Birds in Nature Reserves Using Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model.

Xianrui Liao,Chong Meng,Zhixing Ren,Wenjin Zhao

doi:10.3390/ijerph17207562

Abstract

The optimization of ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR), using an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP), still experiences problems with fuzzy uncertainties and the wide scope of the obtained optimization schemes. These two limitations pose a high risk of system failure causing high decision risk for decision-makers and render it difficult to further undertake optimization schemes respectively. Therefore, an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model derived from an IPTSP model was constructed to address the random variable, the interval uncertainties and the fuzzy uncertainties in the water management system in the present study, to reduce decision risk and narrow down the scope of the optimization schemes. The constructed IPFTSP model was subsequently applied to the optimization of the ecological water supplement scheme of MNNR under different scenarios, to maximize the recovered habitat area and the carrying capacity for rare migratory water birds. As per the results of the IPFTSP model, the recovered habitat areas for rare migratory birds under low, medium and high flood flow scenarios were (14.06, 17.88) × 103, (14.92, 18.96) × 103 and (15.83, 19.43) × 103 ha, respectively, and the target value was (14.60, 18.47) × 103 ha with a fuzzy membership of (0.01, 0.83). Fuzzy membership reflects the possibility level that the model solutions satisfy the target value and the corresponding decision risk. We further observed that the habitat area recovered by the optimization schemes of the IPFTSP model was significantly increased compared to the recommended scheme, and the increases observed were (5.22%, 33.78%), (11.62%, 41.88%) and (18.44%, 45.39%). In addition, the interval widths of the recovered habitat areas in the IPFTSP model were reduced by 17.15%, 17.98% and 23.86%, in comparison to those from the IPTSP model. It was revealed that the IPFTSP model, besides generating the optimal decision schemes under different scenarios for decision-makers to select and providing decision space to adjust the decision schemes, also shortened the decision range, thereby reducing the decision risk and the difficulty of undertaking decision schemes. In addition, the fuzzy membership obtained from the IPFTSP model, reflecting the relationship among the possibility level, the target value, and the decision risk, assists the decision-makers in planning the ecological water supplement scheme with a preference for target value and decision risk.

Highlights

The wetland ecosystem is one of the most important ecosystems on earth, as it provides necessary ecosystem services such as flood control, climate regulation and habitat provision [1,2,3,4,5,6]
Model was constructed through the addition of fuzzy mathematical programming to the base of interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming (IPTSP) model, with the aim of effectively addressing the interval parameters, random variable, and the fuzzy variables in the system simultaneously, to narrow down the decision-making scope, reducing the decision-making risk
The constructed interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model was applied for the optimization and adjustment of the ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve, with the objective of obtaining maximum recovered habitat area for the Siberian crane, oriental stork, and red-crowned crane, and for generating better ecological service value and net carbon sink

Summary

Introduction

The wetland ecosystem is one of the most important ecosystems on earth, as it provides necessary ecosystem services such as flood control, climate regulation and habitat provision [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Wetland serves as a stop-over region for rare migratory water birds. Wetland restoration is important for the protection of the suitable habitat of water birds [7], and ecological supplement is an effective and efficient approach for the restoration of the ecological functions of a wetland [8]. The wetland area and the suitable habitat area (water areas of depth between 0–40 cm) for rare migratory water birds in MNNR have been reduced to a great extent, which has led to a sharp decrease in the number of rare migratory water birds visiting MNNR [9].

Methods

Results

Conclusion