Abstract
This paper develops a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming model to optimize Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) supply chains in Italy, Germany and the UK. Few works are present in the literature about this topic, thus this paper overcomes this limitation considering carbon supply chains producing different products. The objective of the numerical models is to minimize expected total costs, under the uncertainties of the production costs of carbon-dioxide-based compounds. Once carbon dioxide emissions that should be avoided are fixed, according to environmental protection requirements for each country, the optimal design of these supply chains is obtained finding the distribution of carbon dioxide captured between utilization and storage sections, the amount of different carbon-based products and the best connection between each element inside the system. The expected total costs for the CCUS supply chain of Italy, Germany and the UK are, respectively, 77.3, 98.0 and 1.05 billion€/year (1004, 613 and 164 €/ton CO2 captured). A comparison with the respective deterministic model, analyzed elsewhere, is considered through the evaluation of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) and the Value of Stochastic Solution (VSS). The former is 1.29 billion€/year, 0.18 million€/year and 8.31 billion€/year, respectively, for the CCUS of Italy, the UK and Germany. VSS on the other hand is equal to 1.56 billion€/year, 0 €/year and 0.1 billion€/year, respectively, for the frameworks of Italy, the UK and Germany. The results show that the uncertain production cost in the stochastic model does not have a significant effect on the results; thus, in this case, there are few advantages in solving a stochastic model instead of the deterministic one.
Highlights
The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is a crucial international concern, considering that in 2018 emissions were 33.1 Gt [1]
The aim of this research work is to overcome the present limitation in the development of stochastic models for CCUS supply chains producing a variety of carbon-based products: a two-stage stochastic model is used to re-design the CCUS supply chains that we developed elsewhere for Germany, Italy and the UK, as shown in Figure 1, where carbon dioxide is captured at the respective flue gas source, transported via pipeline and stored or utilized in different routes according to the principles of circular economy [16,17,18]
It is supposed that: (i) capture plants and carbon dioxide sources are located at the same place; (ii) one source node can be connected to only one capture node in the storage and utilization section [9]; (iii) carbon dioxide is transported via pipeline [9]; (iv) the system structure is designed over a period of 25 years, considering the uncertainty of production costs [16]; (vi) constant rate of compound production over time [16]; (vii) the stochastic parameters have a normal discrete probability distribution, with mean value defined by the previous deterministic treatment and standard deviation of ±20% with respect to the stationary condition [44,49]; and (viii) the stochastic parameters are defined under different scenarios [50]
Summary
The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is a crucial international concern, considering that in 2018 emissions were 33.1 Gt [1]. 2 ◦ C by 2100, as established in the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) [3,4,5] To reach this goal, reductions of carbon dioxide emissions of 40% by 2030 and of 80% by 2050 were proposed, compared to the level of 1990 [6]. A key role to achieve these objectives is attributed to carbon supply chains: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) supply chains, Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) supply chains and CCUS supply chains In these systems, carbon dioxide is captured from large point sources, transported, generally via pipeline, and sent to the storage in the first case, to the utilization in the second case and to the storage and/or utilization sections in the last case [7]
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