Optimisation of Inventory Management Through Time Series Analysis of Inventory Data with Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Stock forecasting is very useful for companies in knowing the trend of inventory needed in the next period, with time series data often forecasting can be a solution in supporting decision making. Excess or lack of stock of goods is often caused by a less than optimal record management process and often relies on personal intuition. In this study, the Double Exponential Smoothing method is applied in analyzing time series data and forecasting stock data. This method is used because it is in accordance with the company's sales data which is up and down. In addition, this forecasting calculation does not escape the error rate of forecasting calculations, therefore this system is also supported by the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage) methods to calculate the error rate of the forecasting results. The forecasting results show that this method is able to provide fairly accurate predictions with a MAD value of 5.2475, MSE of 43.009, and MAPE of 26.307%. By using DES, companies can perform better stock planning, reduce the risk of over- or under-stocking, and improve inventory management efficiency. The DES method is proven to be flexible and easy to implement in computerized information systems, so it is recommended to be used more widely in corporate inventory management.