Abstract
The worsening water scarcity has imposed a significant stress on food production in many parts of the world. This stress becomes more critical when countries seek self-sufficiency. A literature review shows that food self-sufficiency has not been assessed as the main factor in determining the optimal cultivation patterns. However, food self-sufficiency is one of the main policies of these countries and requires the most attention and concentration. Previous works have focused on the virtual water trade to meet regional food demand and to calculate trade flows. The potential of the trade network can be exploited to improve the cropping pattern to ensure food and water security. To this end, and based on the research gaps mentioned, this study develops a method to link intra-country trade networks, food security, and total water footprints (WFs) to improve food security. The method is applied in Iran, a water-scarce country. The study shows that 781 × 106 m3 of water could be saved by creating a trade network. Results of the balanced trade network are input to a multi-objective optimization model to improve cropping patterns based on the objectives of achieving food security and preventing water crises. The method provides 400 management scenarios to improve cropping patterns considering 51 main crops in Iran. Results show a range of improvements in food security (19–45%) and a decrease in WFs (2–3%). The selected scenario for Iran would reduce the blue water footprint by 1207 × 106 m3, and reduce the cropland area by 19 × 103 ha. This methodology allows decision makers to develop policies that achieve food security under limited water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.
Highlights
The worsening water scarcity has imposed a significant stress on food production in many parts of the world
A WFblue volume of 781 × 1 06 m3 was consumed to produce these crops. This amount of blue water was deemed exported from the country because of the lack of an internal trade network to distribute the crops to meet the demands of the country for those crops
Cropping pattern modifications and associated increased water productivity and decreasing WFblue per ton of crops would be effective in controlling water crisis, something that has been reported previously in studies involving other regions [see, e.g., Lopez and Bautista-Capetillo[64] and Zhuo et al.65]
Summary
The worsening water scarcity has imposed a significant stress on food production in many parts of the world. The selected scenario for Iran would reduce the blue water footprint by 1207 × 1 06 m 3, and reduce the cropland area by 19 × 1 03 ha This methodology allows decision makers to develop policies that achieve food security under limited water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. Iran is a large agricultural country in the MENA region that has pursued a food self-sufficiency program since 199021 This program is based on cropland expansion with little attention to crop water productivity and trade[18]. Iran must create a trade network that places the agricultural system in line with the country’s food demand to achieve food security and self-sufficiency. The WF concept emphasizes that water has local and global dimensions
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