Optimal vaccination ages for emerging infectious diseases under limited vaccine supply.

Abstract

Rational allocation of limited vaccine resources is one of the key issues in the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. An age-structured infectious disease model with limited vaccine resources is proposed to explore the optimal vaccination ages. The effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the epidemic disease is computed. It is shown that the reproduction number is the threshold value for eradicating disease in the sense that the disease-free steady state is globally stable if [Formula: see text] and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium if [Formula: see text]. The effective reproduction number is used as an objective to minimize the disease spread risk. Using the epidemic data from the early spread of Wuhan, China and demographic data of Wuhan, we figure out the strategies to distribute the vaccine to the age groups to achieve the optimal vaccination effects. These analyses are helpful to the design of vaccination schedules for emerging infectious diseases.