Optimal Timing of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement in Europe

Chryso Sotiriou,Theodoros Zachariadis

doi:10.3390/en12101872

Abstract

Decarbonization by the mid-21st century requires strong commitment to greenhouse emission abatement measures, but national emission reduction pledges are made for the medium term. Achieving medium term targets without taking into account the long term can lead to a lock-in effect, binding countries in pathways that cannot lead to strong decarbonization. This paper sheds light in this issue by combining a theoretical approach with real-world engineering and cost data. We develop a constrained optimization model to examine least-cost greenhouse gas emission abatement pathways, taking into account (a) emission reduction objectives for two years: 2030 and 2050; and (b) the potential speed of implementation of each measure, which expresses technical and behavioural inertia in the deployment of a measure. We focus on European countries and economic sectors that are not subject to the EU Emissions Trading System. We derive relationships between 2030 abatement targets of varying ambition and the possibility for a country to achieve a strong 2050 target. We find that more ambitious EU-wide targets have to be set by 2030 so that Europe delivers deep decarbonization by 2050. Moreover, if air pollution costs are taken into account, strong decarbonization by 2050 has lower social costs than less ambitious policies.

Highlights

Many governments around the world are committing themselves to increasingly stringent energyand climate-related targets for the medium and long term in order to bring their policies in line with theParis Agreement on Climate Change, which was adopted in 2015 [1]
Sometimes the optimization procedure concludes with the development of a marginal emissions abatement cost curve (MACC), which ranks all abatement measures according to their cost per tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) abated and can serve as a guide to policymakers for prioritizing specific measures [3]
Decarbonization by the mid-21st century requires strong commitment to greenhouse emission abatement measures, but national emission reduction pledges are made for the medium term

Summary

Introduction

Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which was adopted in 2015 [1]. Such commitments are usually expressed as a pledge to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a certain percentage rate up to 2030, 2040 or 2050, compared to a reference year of the past. In order to fulfil such pledges, policymakers have to design proper and cost-effective decarbonization strategies This involves deciding an appropriate mix of GHG abatement policies and measures that can be implemented so as to meet the emission reduction objective in the target year, at the least cost to society. Vogt-Schilb and Hallegatte [3] developed an optimization model for two theoretical emission reduction measures which have different costs and different potential to meet 2030 and 2050 targets, and have introduced a variable to capture the speed of implementation of each measure They applied this approach in a real-world setting, by developing an improved MACC for Brazil [7]. This paper distances itself from the specific case study of Cyprus; it uses the same data as a starting point, the assumptions to be presented about the future evolution of costs, abatement potential and speed of implementation are more generic, as the optimization model is intended to be relevant for any country seeking cost-optimal decarbonization pathways in its non-ETS sectors

Methodology

Data and Assumptions on Policies and Measures

Introduction of electric cars

Simulation Results

Discussion and Conclusions

Detailed Methodology