Abstract
Abstract To quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surge and coastal inundation in the U.S., storm surge atlas and base flood elevation (BFE) maps are developed. The traditional method for determining the BFE map is the joint probability method (JPM), which requires the simulation of over thousands of hypothetical hurricanes to accurately represent the storm climatology to determine the surge response and return frequency—a huge cost using the sophisticated surge and inundation models today. This study presents an efficient and accurate JPM-OS (optimal sampling) for determining inundation return frequencies using piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids, based on inundation response calculated by a storm surge modeling system. This method involves the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the simulated surge response and the storm characteristics of an optimal set of storms to any set of storm parameters. The interpolated results can be combined with a probabilistic description to obtain the return frequencies. The method is used to calculate the inundation frequencies of SW Florida and compared with the JPM. The results show excellent agreement between simulated and interpolated response with two orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. This technique can be readily applied to other coasts.
Published Version
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