Optimal Scheduling of Logistical Support for Medical Resource with Demand Information Updating

Ming Liu,Yihong Xiao

doi:10.1155/2015/765098

Abstract

This paper presents a discrete time-space network model for a dynamic resource allocation problem following an epidemic outbreak in a region. It couples a forecasting mechanism for dynamic demand of medical resource based on an epidemic diffusion model and a multistage programming model for optimal allocation and transport of such resource. At each stage, the linear programming solves for a cost minimizing resource allocation solution subject to a time-varying demand that is forecasted by a recursion model. The rationale that the medical resource allocated in early periods will take effect in subduing the spread of epidemic and thus impact the demand in later periods has been incorporated in such recursion model. A custom genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the proposed model, and a numerical example is presented for sensitivity analysis of the parameters. We compare the proposed medical resource allocation mode with two traditional operation modes in practice and find that our model is superior to any of them in less waste of resource and less logistic cost. The results may provide some practical guidelines for a decision-maker who is in charge of medical resource allocation in an epidemics control effort.

Highlights

Over the past few years, the world has grown increasingly concerned about the threat of different epidemics
We develop a discrete time-space network model to study the medical resource allocation problem in an epidemic outbreak
In each decision-making cycle, the allocation of medical resource across the region from area distribution centers (ADC) through district distribution centers (DDC) to emergency designated hospitals (EDH) is determined by a linear programming model with the dynamic demand that is forecasted by an epidemic diffusion rule

Summary

Introduction

Over the past few years, the world has grown increasingly concerned about the threat of different epidemics. Medicine logistics operation in epidemic control activities in China has traditionally been done unsystematically and separately, based on the decision-makers’ experience and disregarding the interrelationship between the time-varying demand and the logistics operation planning from a systematic perspective This paramount life-saving and costly logistics problem opens up a wide range of applications of Operations Research/Management Science techniques and has motivated many recent research works. A time-space network model for the medical resource allocation problem in controlling epidemic diffusion is proposed.

Literature Review

The Mathematical Model

Solution Methodology

Numerical Tests

Findings

Conclusions