Epidemic Logistics with Demand Information Updating Model I: Medical Resource Is Enough

Abstract

In this chapter, we present a discrete time-space network model for allocating medical resource following an epidemic outbreak. It couples a forecasting mechanism for dynamic demand of medical resource based on an epidemic diffusion model and a multi-stage programming model for optimal allocation and transport of such resource. In this chapter, we present a discrete time-space network model for allocating medical resource following an epidemic outbreak. It couples a forecasting mechanism for dynamic demand of medical resource based on an epidemic diffusion model and a multi-stage programming model for optimal allocation and transport of such resource. At each stage, the linear programming solves for a cost minimizing resource allocation solution subject to a time-varying demand that is forecasted by a recursion model. The rationale that the medical resource allocated in early periods will take effect in subduing the spread of epidemic and thus impact the demand in later periods has been incorporated in such recursion model. We compare the proposed medical resource allocation mode with other operation modes in practice, and find that our model is superior to any of them in less waste of resource and less logistic cost. The results may provide some practical guidelines for a decision-maker who is in charge of medical resource allocation in an epidemics control effort.