Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize the Probability of Lifetime Ruin

Abstract

I study the problem of how individuals should invest their wealth in a risky financial market to minimize the probability that they outlive their wealth, also known as the probability of lifetime ruin. Specifically, I determine the optimal investment strategy of an individual who targets a given rate of consumption and seeks to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. Two forms of the consumption function are considered: (1) The individual consumes at a constant (real) dollar rate, and (2) the individual consumes a constant proportion of his or her wealth. The first is arguably more realistic, but the second has a close connection with optimal consumption in Merton’s model of optimal consumption and investment under power utility. For constant force of mortality, I determine (a) the probability that individuals outlive their wealth if they follow the optimal investment strategy; (b) the corresponding optimal investment rule that tells individuals how much money to invest in the risky asset for a given wealth level; (c) comparative statics for the functions in (a) and (b); (d) the distribution of the time of lifetime ruin, given that ruin occurs; and (e) the distribution of bequest, given that ruin does not occur. I also include numerical examples to illustrate how the formulas developed in this paper might be applied.