Optimal Decision-Making of Trans-Provincial Electricity Market Subjects with Risks under Renewable Portfolio Standards

Abstract

The randomness and uncertainty of renewable energy generation are expected to significantly change the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects. Therefore, it is beneficial to optimize the interests of each of these subjects, considering the unpredictable risks of renewable energy under the renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and researching their effects on the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market multi-subjects. First, we develop a trans-provincial trading market mechanism for renewable energy and clarify the electricity supply and demand relation and the green certificates supply and demand relation of trans-provincial electricity market multi-subjects. Then, under the RPS, we construct a multi-subject game model of the power supply chain that recognizes the risks, and adopt the reverse induction method to discuss the optimum risk-taking judgment of each subject in the trans-provincial electricity market. Finally, we use MATLAB to verify the viability and efficacy of the proposed game model, and obtain a certain reference value for the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects. In summary, we consider the uncertainty risks of renewable energy under RPS, study the effects of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient in the RPS mechanism on the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects, and obtain the changing trends of two different power products and those of different electricity market subjects under the influence of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient, which have a certain reference value for studying the factors affecting the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.