OPTIMAL ALTERNATIVE SELECTION MODELS IN A MULTI-STAGE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Abstract

Management decision-making tasks are usually characterized by a high level of uncertainty. When solving this class of problems, it is necessary to take into account the environmental conditions for the implementation of the decisions made and the consequences that may arise in this case. The decision-making task in the face of uncertainty can be represented in the form of a “game with nature”, in which the optimal player strategy is sought. A two-stage decision-making process is considered, in which at each stage the decision-making problem is solved in conditions of risk. The case is supposed in which, after making a decision at the first stage, choosing an effective alternative and the onset of a certain state of nature, it is necessary to solve the decision-making problem of the second stage. Decision-making models based on well-known decision models of the “game with nature” are proposed. The developed models allow in the process of choosing an effective alternative to the first stage to assess the possible consequences of such a choice, taking into account the expectations of the decision maker. In the course of experimental verification, it is shown that the developed decision-making models can be used to solve such multi-stage problems, the phased solution of which is incorrect. This may occur due to the fact that some of their stages are associated with certain losses, and others – with profit. In such situations, it is advisable to consider the problem as a whole and at each stage, take into account all available information as much as possible.