Optimal Allocation of Multi-Type Vaccines in a Two-Dose Vaccination Campaign for Epidemic Control: A Case Study of COVID-19

Abstract

As a typical case of the optimal planning for the provision of restricted medical resources, widespread vaccination is considered an effective and sustainable way to prevent and control large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks. However, an initial supply shortage of vaccines is inevitable because of the narrow production and logistical capacity. This work focuses on the multi-type vaccine resource allocation problem in a two-dose vaccination campaign under limited supply. To address this issue, we extended an age-stratified susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model to incorporate a two-dose vaccination campaign involving multiple vaccine types to fully characterize the various stages of infection and vaccination. Afterward, we integrated the proposed epidemiological model into a nonlinear programming (NLP) model to determine the optimal allocation strategy under supply capacity and vaccine hesitancy constraints with the goal of minimizing the cumulative number of deaths due to the pandemic over the entire planning horizon. A case study based on real-world data from the initial mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 in the Midlands, England, was taken to validate the applicability of our model. Then, we performed a comparative study to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method and conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis on critical model parameters. Our results indicate that prioritizing the allocation of vaccines to elderly persons is an effective strategy for reducing COVID-19-related fatalities. Furthermore, we found that vaccination alone will not be sufficient for epidemic control in the short term, and appropriate non-pharmacological interventions are still important for effective viral containment during the initial vaccine rollout. The results also showed that the relative efficacy of the first dose is a vital factor affecting the optimal interval between doses. It is always best to complete the two-dose vaccination schedule as soon as possible when the relative efficacy of the first dose is low. Conversely, delaying the second dose of a vaccine as long as possible to increase the proportion of the population vaccinated with a single dose tends to be more favorable when the relative efficacy of the first dose is high. Finally, our proposed model is general and easily extendable to the study of other infectious disease outbreaks and provides important implications for public health authorities seeking to develop effective vaccine allocation strategies for tackling possible future pandemics.