Optimal AK composite estimators in current population survey

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly household sample survey with a sample consisting of eight rotation groups. Sampled individuals of a rotation group are interviewed four consecutive months and another four consecutive months after resting eight consecutive months. A composite-type estimator is adopted in the CPS for the estimation of the monthly population total, which combines sample information from the current month's survey and previous months using the fact that 75% households have data for two consecutive months. There are two values, A and K, in the composite estimator to decide how to combine the available information, and thus this estimator is called the AK composite estimator. In this paper, we use a formula of the mean-squared error of AK composite estimator and propose an easy-to-use method of choosing A and K based on data, which evolves the estimation of some population quantities using the method of moments and replication. Some numerical studies are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.