Opportunities or Risks: Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Structure Adjustment in Ecologically Vulnerable Regions in China

Abstract

Global warming by 2 °C or above will frequently see weather beyond the critical tolerance threshold for agricultural extreme high temperatures. If so, people will have to more accurately evaluate the opportunities and risks posed by future climate change while adjusting the structure of agricultural production. However, accurate assessment results of the impacts of climate change on crop yield are absent in the current studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy. To address this gap, this paper sets forth a comprehensive evaluation method using a crop model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model. According to research findings, future climate change may continue with the trend of the continued decline of grain planting areas and the continued growth of cash crop planting areas in ecologically vulnerable regions. This will make grain security more difficult. On one hand, perennial crop planting broadens the eco-space for future economic and social development in ecologically vulnerable regions. Therefore, attention should be paid to grain security. The cash crop planting area should not be excessively expanded. On the other hand, it is advised to plant perennial crops in those areas which are unsuitable for planting cash crops.