Operationally Structured Model for Strategic Runway Configuration Predictions

Abstract

This paper presents a model for predicting runway configurations for congested airports by hour, over a full-day look-ahead horizon. Airport departure and arrival capacity is primarily determined by the set of runways in use and the terminal weather, which can limit the volume of operations. Predicting airport runway configuration and the resulting operational capacity, especially for high-volume airports, can therefore provide valuable information for strategic planning. The model developed in this paper encapsulates the multiscale operational procedures involved in selecting runway configurations, while also accounting for the terminal-area weather forecast data. A detailed case study for two airports is presented and the model’s performance is evaluated for all of the Federal Aviation Administration’s 35 Operational Evolution Partnership airports, using both recorded weather and Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts. The differences in prediction performance between weather sources and among airports are examined.