Economic benefits of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for Sydney Airport, Australia

Abstract

AbstractThe study estimates the economic value of information contained in weather forecasts for the aviation industry known as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs); and estimates the economic benefits of improving the accuracy of the information. The response of an airline to a TAF, in terms of fuel load and the decision to divert the flight to another aerodrome, is modelled using a decision analytic framework. Relationships between expected direct airline cost, the value of the forecasts and TAF accuracy are derived using historical TAF verification data from 1972 to 1993 and actual airline operating costs based on 1994 economic conditions. This allows the cost savings due to improved TAF accuracy, and the value of TAFs at particular levels of accuracy and over a particular time period, to be estimated. The economic value of TAFs produced in 1993 for Sydney Airport, based on Qantas Airways Limited international routes into Sydney, was estimated at A$6.9 million. This is about 80% of the maximum potential value of ‘perfect’ forecasts. On the same basis the economic benefit of a hypothetical uniform increase in TAF accuracy of 1% was estimated at A$1.2 million per year.