Abstract
Coral bleaching, triggered by high ocean temperatures, is a growing challenge for reef management. This paper assesses the ability of an operational seasonal prediction system (POAMA) to forecast summer SST anomalies in real-time across the Great Barrier Reef. Real-time POAMA SST forecasts compare well to observed conditions, particularly during ENSO active years. Prediction skill, however, can be limited by model resolution, ensemble system design and the inherent predictability of events such as monsoon onset. Advanced warning of anomalously warm conditions, and hence bleaching risk, allows for a proactive management approach and is an invaluable tool for reef management under a changing climate.
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