Abstract
Although some recent progress has been made in operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting, the prediction of rapid intensification (RI) remains a challenging problem. To document RI forecast progress, deterministic and probabilistic operational intensity models used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are briefly reviewed. Results show that none of the deterministic models had RI utility from 1991 to about 2015 due to very low probability of detection, very high false alarm ratio, or both. Some ability to forecast RI has emerged since 2015, with dynamical models being the best guidance for the Atlantic and statistical models the best RI guidance for the eastern North Pacific. The first probabilistic RI guidance became available in 2001, with several upgrades since then leading to modest skill in recent years. A tool introduced in 2018 (DTOPS) is currently the most skillful among NHC’s probabilistic RI guidance. To measure programmatic progress in forecasting RI, the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program has introduced a new RI metric that uses the traditional mean absolute error but restricts the sample to only those cases where RI occurred in the verifying best track or was forecast. By this metric, RI forecasts have improved by ~20–25% since the 2015–2017 baseline period.
Highlights
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues public forecasts every 6 h for all tropical and subtropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins
C20 [1] and the references therein describe the primary deterministic intensity models currently used by NHC
The predictors used in statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) have changed considerably since 1991, and the version before 2001 did not account for movement over land
Summary
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues public forecasts every 6 h for all tropical and subtropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These forecasts include the track and intensity (maximum 1-min mean 10-m winds) through days. NHC’s intensity errors have notably decreased, primarily due to the emergence of skillful intensity guidance. Statistical–dynamical intensity guidance, including the statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) [2] and the logistic growth equation model (LGEM) [3], were the most skillful in the first decade of the 2000s. Consensus models, which combine forecasts from various other models, have contributed to the increased intensity forecast skill [6,7]
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