Open energy system modelling for low-emission hydrogen roadmap planning: The case of Colombia

Abstract

Climate change is driving the need for new approaches to energy production and utilization globally, contributing to the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low-emission hydrogen is recognized as a key energy vector for decarbonization, and numerous countries are currently evaluating strategies and roadmaps for its integration. Colombia, with its abundant renewable resources, is poised as a potential player in hydrogen production. This study presents a techno-economic assessment of hydrogen pathways and their cross-sectoral interactions within the Colombian energy system. By employing an open energy system optimization framework (OSeMOSYS), we modelled a detailed supply-demand hydrogen chain and analysed a series of scenarios from 2021 to 2050, including a sensitivity analysis. Our results show that hydrogen pathways will require 2–6.4 Mt/year in hydrogen production, 8–27 GW in new installed capacity, and US$50–80 billion in investments, with favourable impacts in GHG mitigation, energy imports, and socioeconomic benefits. We use these findings to suggest an update to the targets of the current National Hydrogen Roadmap focused on a higher ambition to deploy a full hydrogen economy. Our open methodology provides a valuable tool for conducting further assessments in developing countries interested in defining low-emission hydrogen roadmaps.