One-step vs horizon-step training strategies for multi-step traffic flow forecasting with direct particle swarm optimization grid search support vector regression and long short-term memory

Abstract

In the increasingly complex urban transportation landscape, the necessity for accurate, multi-step forecasting has never been more apparent to help plan for long-term, strategic transportation initiatives like Intelligent Transportation Systems. This work focuses on resolving uncertainties around the proper training step size for machine learning models performing multi-step traffic flow forecasting. Two strategies are considered: one-step and horizon-step training sizes, which extend from the single-step forecasting method. This paper compares and evaluates two machine learning models: the Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Data from two country road locations, including urban roads in Kuala Lumpur and the I5-North freeway in California, are employed to forecast traffic flow in 1-hour increments, projecting from 2 h up to 24 h ahead. The results reveal a significant difference in performance between the two training step sizes, with the one-step training size emerging as the more consistent and optimal strategy for both Direct and Multi-Input Multi-Output forecasting strategies. The proposed model, the Direct Particle Swarm Optimization Grid Search Support Vector Regression (Direct-PSOGS-SVR) model, exhibited comparable or slightly better performance than the LSTM model in both environments. In the I5-North freeway dataset, the Direct-PSOGS-SVR achieved similar Root Mean Squared Error values across most forecasting tasks compared to the LSTM, indicating its effectiveness in stable traffic flow patterns. Notably, in the more dynamic urban environment of Kuala Lumpur, the Direct-PSOGS-SVR model also demonstrated stability and resilience in forecasting accuracy, effectively handling the inherent noise and fluctuations in traffic patterns. These findings serve as a valuable guide for practitioners in selecting the most efficacious combination of training strategies for specific time series forecasting tasks utilizing machine learning models, particularly in traffic flow forecasting. Introducing the Direct-PSOGS-SVR model enriches the landscape of machine learning solutions for traffic forecasting, underscoring the paper’s contributions to the broader understanding of time series forecasting dynamics.