On the three-state weather model of transmission line failures

Abstract

Recent work by Billinton et al. has highlighted the importance of employing more than one adverse weather state when modelling transmission line failures by Markov processes. In the present work the structure of the modelling Markov process is identified, allowing the rate matrix to be written in a closed form using Kronecker matrix operations. This approach allows larger models to be handled safely and with ease. The MAXIMA implementation of two asymptotic reliability indices for such systems is addressed, exemplifying the combination of symbolic and numerical steps, perhaps not seen in this context before. It is also indicated how the three-state weather model can be extended to a multi-state model, while retaining the scope of the proposed closed-form expression for the rate matrix. Some possible future work is discussed.