On the structure and variability of vertically propagating marine heatwaves in the Eastern Pacific

Abstract

In recent decades, the Eastern Pacific has been subject to many pronounced marine heatwaves (MHWs), with far-reaching consequences for marine ecosystems. As MHWs are commonly detected at the sea surface, little is known about their vertical structure, let alone the temporal variability of this structure. To fill this gap, we detect and characterise vertically extended MHWs within a high-resolution model hindcast simulation (1979-2019) of the Eastern Pacific. Considering the vertical dimension in the MHW detection furthermore enables the tracking of vertical MHW propagation. We find that 71% of MHWs are on average confined to the mixed layer, while 29% reach at least 10m below. By clustering the MHWs, we identify four main vertical propagation patterns. While the majority of MHWs remains at the surface throughout their lifetime, 18% (13%) of MHWs subduct beneath (shoal towards) the surface, while 12% rather sit beneath the surface and exhibit multi-surfacing behaviour. As a consequence of the vertical propagation, MHWs affect upper ocean ecosystems substantially longer than diagnosed from the sea surface (40 vs. 30 days on average).In the mid-latitude Northeast Pacific, we find a seasonal cycle in the vertical MHW propagation clusters. We find that wintertime MHWs can detrain from the mixed layer, persist in the seasonal thermocline and re-entrain into the ML at a later stage. This finding agrees well with previous work on the role of the re-emergence phenomenon of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific and suggests potential sources of predictability for MHWs at the sea surface. At lower latitudes, we find that interannual variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation strongly dominates any seasonality in the occurrence of the different MHW clusters. Lastly, we find that accounting for the vertical MHW propagation almost doubles the average Eastern Pacific area affected by MHWs, compared to the surface only perspective. These new insights regarding MHW depth structures and their temporal variability mark an important step towards a better understanding of MHW drivers and the consequences of MHWs for marine ecosystems.