On the spatial pattern of the distribution of the tsunami run-up heights

Abstract

This study suggests the map representing the best-fit distribution of the tsunami run-up height time series. To obtain the map, the tsunami numerical simulations corresponding to the 11 different causative undersea earthquake were firstly performed. Then, the best-fit distribution representing the tsunami run-up height values for each modeling in-land grid point was determined using the probability plot correlation coefficient test. Then, the probability that the tsunami run-up height exceeding a 30 cm was estimated using the fitted distribution for each of the modeling grid point. Finally, the map of the best-fit distribution was produced based on the maximum exceedance probability out of the total 11 simulations. The log-normal distribution represents the distribution of the tsunami run-up heights for the wide area of the back of the quay while the normal distribution does the same along the coast line. The Gumbel and exponential distribution did not show a specific spatial pattern but were sparsely located. In addition, the map representing the probability that the tsunami run-up height exceeds a given criterion depth (30 cm) was created. We expect these two maps help the disaster managers and policy makers in making more precise decisions while placing and designing coastal structures by providing important information regarding the risk of the tsunami attack from statistical and temporal perspective.