Abstract
ABSTRACT Contrary to the current tendency to extrapolate China’s future trajectory from its current retrenchment, it is argued that China has changed substantially in the past and is likely to continue to change in the future. While change has always been strife-torn and radically contingent, it may be seen in retrospect to fit a rough pattern as occasioned by generational as well as ideological and developmental factors. Can we find clues in this pattern of change that provide some basis for speculation about China’s future? A definition of ‘generation,’ is followed by a review of the past pattern of China’s generational evolution and by a theory of generational change to account for it. The essay concludes with a discussion of China’s path-dependent cyclical future evolution.
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