On the role of the US in EU-Japan relations: Is trilateralism still on agenda?

Abstract

This article is devoted to analyzing the contemporary configuration of relations inside the triad of the US, the European Union, and Japan, often addressed to as trilateral relations. The ‘three pillars’ theory, which is acknowledged to be a root of the trilateralism concept, was originally introduced by the Japanese Prime Minister Ikeda Hayato during his visit to Paris in 1962. Later, in the 1980s, it was developed by the Japanese diplomat Owada Hisashi, known for his active participation in the Hague declaration preparatory process. This concept was widely used by researchers in the 1990–2000s to explain current EU-Japan relations and their place in world politics. Indeed, it seems natural to develop cooperation between the participants of the so-called ‘triangle’, which dominated the world economically and shared common values of democracy, human rights, and free trade. Meanwhile, although the Transatlantic and Transpacific relations were highly developed due to security cooperation, the Japan-EU relations during the whole post-war period were far less advanced and thus were often called a ‘weak side’ of the triangle. Today, when the US is actively promoting new alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, engaging Australia and India, and the economic predominance of the three economies is challenged by China, addressing this triangle scheme as a working political relations model can be put in doubt.The article argues that, presently, it is difficult to interpret the triangle as a working political model, which is characterized by mutual interdependence of the three engaging actors. The author looks at the roots of this concept, analyzes the reasons why it was the Japanese side who offered such a vision of the US-EC-Japan relations, the role of the US in Japan-Western Europe relations. After considering the decisions of the D. Trump and J. Biden administrations towards their ‘junior partners’, the author concludes that inconsistent, difficult to forecast policy of the Trump administration led to the strengthening of the EU-Japan relationship, which gives reason to point to a certain extent of interdependence between the participants of the triangle. However, the Biden administration’s policy, which seems to be more consistent, but short of idealism towards its allies, has not significantly influenced the EU-Japan relations so far. Rather, it opened the way to search for new partnerships. The conclusion of a defense pact between Japan and Australia in January 2022 is a good example of this process, showing that the partners’ choice is dictated not by a necessity to develop ‘trilateral’ relations, but by pragmatic assessment of effectiveness of this or that partnership.