Abstract
Short-term animal movements play an integral role in the transmission and control of zoonotic infections such as brucellosis, in communal farming zones where animal movements are highly uncontrolled. Such movements need to be incorporated in models that aim at informing animal managers effective ways to control the spread of zoonotic diseases. We developed, analyzed and simulated a two-patch mathematical model for brucellosis transmission that incorporates short-term animal mobility. We computed the basic reproduction number and demonstrated that it is a sharp threshold for disease dynamics. In particular, we demonstrated that, when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, then the disease dies out. However, if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the disease persists. Meanwhile, we applied optimal control theory to the proposed model with the aim of exploring the cost-effectiveness of different culling strategies. The results demonstrate that animal mobility plays an important role in shaping optimal control strategy.
Highlights
Brucellosis, a highly contagious zoonotic disease, remains a significant public health threat worldwide
We developed a mathematical model to study the transmission and control of brucellosis within an environment defined by two patches of heterogeneous risk
Under our assumption, we can conclude that effective brucellosis control will always be difficult to attain whenever there is animal mobility
Summary
Brucellosis, a highly contagious zoonotic disease, remains a significant public health threat worldwide. It is estimated that more than 500,000 new cases of the disease are reported annually [1], with incidence as high as 200 cases per 100,000 in most endemic countries [2]. America and Asia—in particular Southeast Asia—where factors such as pastoral farming practices, beliefs and lack of bio-security have been attributed to persistence of the disease [3]. Transmission and control of brucellosis in both human and animal population remains a complex phenomenon that possibly involves the type of farming practiced in the area; economic, geographic and environmental structures; and the intrinsic disease biology and ecology. Animal movement plays crucial role on transmission and control of the disease. In communal farming zones, animal movements are highly uncontrolled compared to private farming. Since livestock management varies from one farmer to another, it is evident that understanding
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