Abstract
The upwelling cores on the Caribbean Colombian coasts are mainly located at the Peninsula de la Guajira and Cabo de la Aguja. We used monthly averaged Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature as the only information to build up a prediction model for the upwelling events. This comprised two steps: (i) the reduction of the complexity by means of the Karhunen–Loève transform and (ii) a prediction model of time series. Two prediction models were considered: (a) a parametric autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) time series from the Box–Jenkins methodology and (b) a harmonic synthesis model. The harmonic synthesis also comprised of two steps: the maximum entropy spectral analysis and a least-squares harmonic analysis on the set of frequencies. The parametric ARMA time series model failed at the time of prediction with a very narrow range, and it was quite difficult to apply. The harmonic synthesis allowed prediction with a horizon of six months with a correlation of about 0.80. The results can be summarized using the time series of the weights of the different oscillation modes, their spatial structures with the nodal lines, and a high confidence model with a horizon of prediction of about four months.
Highlights
One of the nine upwelling areas in the Southern Caribbean [1] is located in Punta Gallinas andCabo de la Aguja, on the Peninsula de la Guajira (Figure 1)
20 the other hand, we studied the upwelling at the Peninsula de la Guajira from several points of view
The Colombian Caribbean upwelling system is almost permanent due to the combination of the morphology of the coast, the bathymetry, and the persistently blowing westward trade winds related to the dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)
Summary
One of the nine upwelling areas in the Southern Caribbean [1] is located in Punta Gallinas andCabo de la Aguja, on the Peninsula de la Guajira (Figure 1). A description of the upwelling foci and an exhaustive study on the oceanography, nutrient and pigment distribution, and a discussion of the role of the upwelling filaments in the enrichment of open-sea areas in the Caribbean can be found in [4]. Remote sensing studies in the area started with the use of coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) imagery, which showed a low phytoplankton concentration in the open ocean and high concentrations at the coastal areas where upwelling occurs [5]. A study of the upwelling foci along the Southern Caribbean coast using advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) imagery for the year 1996 can be found in [6]. Upwelling events from AVHRR imagery were studied in [7], where remote sensing information was combined with meteorological data to link the wind forcing with the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The most important event occurs when the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is at its southernmost position (December until April–May) with the prevailing trade winds acting in Sensors 2019, 19, 2861; doi:10.3390/s19132861 www.mdpi.com/journal/sensors
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