On the prediction of SAV transmission among Norwegian aquaculture sites

Abstract

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease that affects Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Norwegian, Scottish and Irish aquaculture. It is caused by salmonid alphavirus (SAV) and represents a significant problem in salmonid farming. Infection with SAV leads to reduced growth, mortality, product downgrading, and has a significant financial impact for the farms. The overall aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of various factors on the transmission of SAV and to create a predictive model capable of providing an early warning system for salmon farms within the Norwegian waters. Using a combination of publicly available databases, specifically BarentsWatch, and privately held PCR analyses a feature set consisting of 11 unique features was created based on the input parameters of the databases. An ensemble model was developed based on this feature set using XG-Boost, Ada-Boost, Random Forest and a Multilayer Perceptron. It was possible to successfully predict SAV transmission with 94.4% accuracy. Moreover, it was possible to predict SAV transmission 8 weeks in advance of a ‘PD registration’ at individual aquaculture salmon farming sites. Important predictors included well boat movement, environmental factors, proximity to sites with a ‘PD registration’ and seasonality.