On the origin of midlatitude ozone changes: Data analysis and simulations for 1979–1993

Abstract

Satellite data show large declines in global (4.5%) and midlatitude (10%) ozone in the mid‐1980s and during 1992 and 1993. Analyses of ozone, temperature, and aerosol records and two‐dimensional chemical transport simulations have been carried out to develop an understanding of the causes of these changes. Simulations include contemporary homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry. Also included are the effects of trace gas increases, dilution and denitrification associated with the Antarctic ozone destruction, solar cycle effects including relativistic electron precipitation (REP), variable diabatic transport fields and temperature, and variable sulfate aerosol surface area density and acidity. Simulated global and midlatitude ozone agree very well with observations for the entire period. Mid‐1980s near‐global ozone declines calculated by the model were found to be due to solar cycle (including REP) effects, −1.9%; volcanic effects, −1.5%; dilution effects, −1.1%; transport and temperature effects, −1%; and trace gas effects, −0.2%. The maximum effects of these different processes occur at different times. The observed 10% reductions in midlatitude ozone are reproduced in the simulations and are primarily due to 1 to 2‐year transport and temperature variations.