Abstract
The Paris Agreement of COP21 set a goal of holding global average temperature increases to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. This is particularly relevant for the African context where temperatures are likely to warm faster than the global average and where the magnitude of change will be regionally heterogeneous. Additionally, many biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems are particularly vulnerable to change in both means and extremes. In this paper we contextualise the lack of regional climate information over Africa at global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels through a short review of the literature. We show most studies that provide information over Africa under specific GWLs have used data from global models, however global models poorly resolve local scale forcing (e.g. topography) nor the internal climate variability of a region. Although downscaling using regional climate models can address these issues we find only one paper that has used downscaled data for GWL studies over Africa. Articles in this focus collection use data from global climate models and the co-ordinated regional downscaling experiment to elucidate the regional and local scale climate responses to various warming levels. This may provide information that contributes meaningfully to the UNFCCC negotiation process and also for the development of adaptation and mitigation policies.
Highlights
The changing nature of climate variability over Africa as a result of greenhouse gas warming has seen changes in regional means of temperature and precipitation as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (Easterling et al 2000, New et al 2006, Shongwe et al 2011, Engelbrecht et al 2015, 2013, Zwiers et al 2013, Sylla et al 2015b, Pinto et al 2016)
These targets are the subject of some debate (Hulme 2016, Raftery et al 2017), it is essential to understand what the regional climate response to these targets over Africa might be as rates and magnitudes of warming across the continent as a result of greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be faster than the global average (Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011, Hawkins and Sutton 2012, Joshi et al 2011, Mahlstein et al 2013, Sanderson et al 2011, Niang et al 2014)
Climate and climate impact information at regional and local scales is critical to (a) improve our understanding of the regional climate response at different global warming levels in terms of means and extremes, (b) assess the regional impact of climate change on regional natural and human systems, (c) provide a robust foundation for policy discussions and (d) to develop regional adaptation options and mitigation policies. In this focus collection we investigate the potential changes in means and extremes of regional African climates under different global warming levels (GWLs)
Summary
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Keywords: CORDEX, regional modelling, regional information, global warming levels
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