On the methodology for the probability evaluation of an aircraft crash on a nuclear power plant site and its nuclear power units

Abstract

A mathematically correct new approach to the probability evaluation of an aircraft (AC) crash on a nuclear power plant (NPP) site and its nuclear power units is developed. The approach is based on two key assumptions: the AC completed its flight in airspace in the area of the nuclear power plant and its nuclear power units are located; during the flight, the aircraft is not affected by external forces. The new approach provides a guaranteed, adequate and cautious (conservative) estimate of the total annual probability of an aircraft crash on a site/object, the probability evaluation of an aircraft crash on an NPP site, since it is believed that in the event of a catastrophic situation on board, the aircraft trajectory does not change the heading angle directed strictly on the site/object. Keywords nuclear power plant, aircraft, fall probability, Gaussian distribution, DE distribution