On the major shifts in the IOD during the last century, the role of the Mascarene High displacements

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this observational research, the seasonally stratified (October to December) Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) behaviour in the tropical Indian Ocean since 1870 is investigated. Three significant climate shifts manifested themselves in the Indian Ocean during the years 1918, 1961 and 1997. Each shift is preceded by a 3‐year sequence of IOD events that are unique in the entire time series. The order is such that a relatively moderate negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly gradient intensifies to an extreme negative IOD event which then reverses in the shift year to an extreme positive event. The last two extreme IOD events reach record‐breaking magnitudes during each shift implying intensification of the shift process with time. During the year before the shift, the Mascarene High (MH) is anomalously displaced poleward and westward, while it intensifies as it anomalously moves equatorward during the shift year. Therefore the maximum contrast of south Indian Ocean pressure pattern and hence the intensity of the MH, from one year to the other within an epoch, is achieved during the shift years. The intensity of this process has been escalating during each of the three successive shifts. Despite involving to a greater extent the IOD dynamics, these IOD shifts may primarily be an expression of the south Indian Ocean basinwide dynamics rather than a direct response to internal tropical influences.