Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate

Abstract

Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) events on global climate are estimated by correlation/regression analysis. The analysis examined land rain and temperature and 3-dimensional atmospheric variables for a 42 yr period from January 1958 to December 1999. The correlation between IOD and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is accounted for using the multiple regression technique. We used partial correlation coefficients to describe the unique contribution of IOD to climate variability, independent of ENSO. In the Indian Ocean rim countries, IOD is associated with significant temperature and rain variability manifesting 2 large-scale patterns. In one, land tem- perature and rain are anomalously high over countries west of the Indian Ocean and anomalously low to its east. In the second pattern, enhanced rainfall is found over the Asian monsoon trough, extending from Pakistan up to southern China. Also noted are IOD impacts on several regions remote from the Indian Ocean. Strong correlation is found over Europe, northeast Asia, North and South America and South Africa concurrent with IOD events. Over these regions, positive IOD events are associated with warm land surface anomalies and reduced rainfall. The troposphere above the Indian Ocean exhibits strong variability during IOD events characterized by the following structures: (1) a Walker cell anomaly over the equator; (2) a deep modulation of monsoon westerlies; and (3) a Hadley cell anomaly over the Bay of Bengal. In the extratropics, IOD is associated with equivalent barotropic geopotential anomalies. These assume annular structure in the northern hemisphere, but Rossby wave train structure in the southern hemisphere.