On the issue of forecasting the runoff of mountain rivers in Uzbekistan

Abstract

The article discusses the possibility of using dynamic models in the form of first- and second-order differential equations for forecasting water discharges in rivers of Uzbekistan. The models were tested on two small mountain catchments, which differ in the conditions for the formation of river runoff. Verification forecasts of average daily water discharges for five years are made. It was found that water discharges of the Akdarya River are predicted effectively with a daily lead time using both a first-order model and a second-order model. The listed models do not give satisfactory results when forecasting water discharges of the Zeravshan River at the Navoi city. In this case, it is necessary to modernize the models to suit the conditions of river runoff formation with an accurate account of the anthropogenic load, which is significant for the catchments of Uzbekistan.