Abstract
To make structural changes leading to an innovative type of economic development is one of the greatest challenges faced by the Russian economy. The national banking system is expected to aid this transition. Focused on the dynamics of Russian Central Bank interest rate (key rate) and interbank lending rate (RUONIA), their impact on the loans ‘distribution by type of economic activity and on the share of processing industries in the banks ’ loan portfolio is analyzed for the period of 2007–2016. Based on correlation analysis the time lag between the movement of credit rates and changes in the structure of the Russian banks‘ credit portfolio was found. The lag is not less than one year. The impact of Russian Central Bank key rate is weaker than the impact of the market rate RUONIA. Also, the increase in lending rates leads to a subsequent increase in the share of processing and extractive industries, while reducing the share of trade. Conversely, the decrease in the lending rates leads (approximately at intervals of one year) to a decrease in the share of processing and extractive industries in favor of trade. The statistical study indicates that lending to the extractive and processing industries changes unidirectionally when changing the lending rates. And in parallel, the share of trade in the banks' loan portfolio is changing in the opposite direction. Thus, the hypothesis of the positive impact of lower lending rates on the progressive changes in the sectoral structure of the Russian economy is not statistically confirmed. The possible reasons of this statistical phenomenon are given.
Published Version
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